IFO Data Shows Pennsylvania’s Emissions Success Story

Overview

The Keystone State cut total emissions while increasing electricity generation, according to the two most recent reports from the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO).
Pennsylvania is outperforming RGGI states in emissions reduction without carbon taxes or cap-and-trade mandates.
Pennsylvania remains the country’s top electricity-exporting state and second-largest natural gas producer.
Carbon tax schemes like the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and the Pennsylvania Climate Emissions Reduction Act (PACER) jeopardize the commonwealth’s competitive edge, future emissions reductions, and an affordable energy supply.

The IFO’s electricity updates for 2024 and 2025 reveal Pennsylvania reduced total CO₂ emissions by 9 percent since 2019 while increasing power generation by 12.5 percent.^[1]
Carbon emissions fell from 0.36 tons per megawatt-hour (MWh) in 2018 to 0.29 for 2023 and 2024, far below the PJM regional average of 0.38.^[2]
CO₂ emissions from 2022 to 2023 saw the most significant year-over-year decrease since the 1990s.
The IFO credits Pennsylvania’s drop in emissions to the state’s transition from coal to natural gas, which emits 2.5 times less CO₂ per MWh.^[3]
Natural gas reached a record 60 percent of Pennsylvania’s electrical generation mix in 2024, entirely replacing coal’s decline. Nuclear sits at 31 percent of the mix, while coal fell to a record low of 5 percent. Renewables make up 4 percent of the generation mix.
While the commonwealth’s power generation increased, its electricity consumption declined (-3 percent since 2019), indicating that Pennsylvania is supplying more power to other states.^[4]
Net exports grew 4.8 percent year-over-year, exporting nearly double the electricity of Alabama, the second-highest state for electricity exports.^[5]

Pennsylvania is one of only three states in the region (along with Ohio and Illinois) that reduced emissions while increasing power generation.^[6]
The Keystone State cut emissions faster than RGGI states.
Between 2018 and 2023, Pennsylvania’s emissions dropped nine million metric tons in its emissions, while New York dropped only one, and New Jersey dropped five. Maryland had similar results to Pennsylvania, though it reduced power generation to achieve it.
Increased electricity generation in Pennsylvania exported out of state has helped secure the PJM grid, making other states’ participation in RGGI more possible, albeit with some tradeoffs.
The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection noted during RGGI’s proposal in the Garden State that the program could significantly increase electricity rates. New York and New Jersey experienced electricity rate increases following their participation in RGGI.^[7]
While Pennsylvania’s power sector keeps grid operations humming and reducing emissions in the region, PJM continues to have concerns about various policy implications at the state and federal levels that jeopardize grid reliability through the forced early retirement of baseload power plants without replaced capacity.^[8]

The General Assembly must reject expansions of the Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (AEPS) through proposals like the Pennsylvania Reliable Energy Sustainability Standard (PRESS) and consider implementing source-neutral grid reliability standards and least-cost generation planning.
Lawmakers should pursue a market-driven, people-first energy policy agenda to secure Pennsylvania’s reliable and affordable energy future.
The 2024 and 2025 IFO reports show that market-driven energy transitions work. Emissions dropped without carbon taxes.
Natural gas is the key to cutting emissions without sacrificing reliability. Pennsylvania continues to be a leader in this area, both in terms of its power generation mix and energy production.
If the goal is reliable, affordable, and clean energy, Pennsylvania’s current approach is working. However, future electricity prices are set to increase thanks to the continued retirement of reliable generators spurred by bad policies like the AEPS and the green energy subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act.
Pennsylvania’s position as the top electricity exporter is an economic driver, yet any significant reduction in Pennsylvania’s reliable power generation caused by RGGI or PACER would jeopardize the PJM Interconnection, the nation’s largest power grid operator that supplies electricity to the commonwealth, plus 12 other states and the District of Columbia.

[1] Jesse Bushman, “Pennsylvania Electricity Update” (2025), Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office, February 2025, http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=Resources/Documents/RB_2025_02_Electricity.pdf; Jesse Bushman, “Pennsylvania Electricity Update” (2024), Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office, March 7, 2024, http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=Resources/Documents/Electricity_Update_2024.pdf.

[2] Bushman, “Pennsylvania Electricity Update” (2025); Bushman, “Pennsylvania Electricity Update” (2024).

[3] Bushman, “Pennsylvania Electricity Update” (2025); Bushman, “Pennsylvania Electricity Update” (2024).

[4] Bushman, “Pennsylvania Electricity Update” (2025); Bushman, “Pennsylvania Electricity Update” (2024).

[5] Bushman, “Pennsylvania Electricity Update” (2025); Bushman, “Pennsylvania Electricity Update” (2024).

[6] Bushman, “Pennsylvania Electricity Update” (2025); Bushman, “Pennsylvania Electricity Update” (2024).

[7] Bushman, “Pennsylvania Electricity Update” (2025); Bushman, “Pennsylvania Electricity Update” (2024).