New Swing State Poll: PA Voters Evenly Divided, Presidential Election a Toss Up

Harrisburg, Pa., July 26, 2024—Public support for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is evenly divided in Pennsylvania, according to a new statewide survey of Pennsylvania voters, with Harris leading Trump 47% to 46% in a head-to-head ballot matchup.

When other candidates are added, Harris and Trump each garner 44% support, with independent Robert F. Kennedy at 6%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 1%, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver at 1%.

The survey, released today by the Commonwealth Foundation, interviewed 800 Pennsylvania voters between July 23 and July 25, 2024, following President Biden’s decision to leave the presidential race. The margin of error is ± 3.46.

Highlights: Battleground PA

Voters are evenly divided on which party’s candidate would best represent them in Congress, with 43% saying a Democrat, 43% saying a Republican, and 7% saying an Independent.
Less than half of voters (42%) believe Kamala Harris should replace Joe Biden on the Democratic presidential ticket. 50% believe alternatives should be considered.
58% said President Biden should serve the remainder of his term; 28% said he should step down and have Kamala Harris serve out the remainder of his term.
In the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate election, Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. leads Republican David McCormick 51 to 40 percent.

“We expect to see the candidates crisscrossing the commonwealth over the next three months. They would be wise to focus on pocketbook issues, such as inflation and high energy costs, which are top-of-mind voter concerns,” said Commonwealth Foundation Senior Vice President Erik Telford.

Highlights: State Policy

The survey revealed that Pennsylvania voters are eager for Gov. Shapiro to deliver on his past campaign promises, protect their financial interests, and exert more transparency and leadership to get things done.

76% believe Gov. Shapiro, who has refused to make his daily calendar available to the public, should be more transparent about the official activities conducted in his role as governor.
73% are concerned that during his first year in office, Gov. Shapiro accrued $270,000 in taxpayer-funded air travel costs—far more than his predecessor, Tom Wolf’s busiest travel year, which cost taxpayers $136,000 in 2018.
84% believe Gov. Shapiro should play a more active role working with the legislature to deliver what he’s promised based on his unfilled promises and lack of legislative accomplishments.
76% of voters believe, due to the governor and state legislature failing two years in a row to enact a budget by the June 30 deadline, Gov. Shapiro should play a more active role in working with the legislature to pass a budget on time.
72% oppose allowing Gov. Shapiro to unilaterally impose new taxes without a vote by their elected representatives in the legislature. Shapiro has gone to court and filed a lawsuit seeking the right to do so.
61% oppose Gov. Shapiro’s proposed alternative energy tax, called PACER, that would impose a new tax on Pennsylvania energy producers to reduce emissions – a change which would increase electricity costs for residents and businesses by 20%.

“Gov. Shapiro is only 18 months into his first term in office and still gaining experience as an executive and a leader,” Telford said. “Much remains unaccomplished in fulfilling the commitments he made to Pennsylvanians. Rather than focusing on personal ambitions for higher office, we hope Shapiro will keep his eye on the ball with the promises he made for the job he currently has.”

The complete Commonwealth Foundation survey can be found here, including survey results of races for statewide offices.

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The Commonwealth Foundation transforms free-market ideas into public policies so all Pennsylvanians can flourish.  